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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.